QBL Women Round 4 Preview
Basketball Expressions is trying a new thing with its weekly review. While i will have my predictions for each game, which I go based on my own opinions. I’m trying a new score predictor that will attempt to predict score based on team's offensive and defensive ratings and the amount of possessions they use in each game.
Friday, May 20
Cairns Dolphins vs. Rockhampton Cyclones
Offensive Rating: Cairns - 97.3 (4th), Rockhampton - 101.0 (1st) Defensive Rating: Cairns - 82.9 (2nd), Rockhampton - 84.3 (3rd)
The Gist: Both teams are at a high, recording victories in their Round 3 games. Cairns minus their import Kristina Baltic managed to dispose of Brisbane Capitals 87-74. Myra Donkin and Teyla Evans top scored with 20 points each. Rockhampton had a comfortable 96 - 69 win over Toowoomba on the Friday night, then backed it up on Sunday with a hard fought win at Mackay (71-76).
Cairns has a lot of height and toughness that could pose a lot of issues for the defending champions. The uncertainty of whether Baltic is available is going to affect Mark Worthington’s side, but still have size with the likes of Evans, Kennedy and Pryor. Rockhampton are glad to have their full squad and Shanavia Dowdell should have go comfortable with the offensive structure. They need a bit more consistency out of Sam Norwood on the offensive end but with Jones and Dowdell in full swing it should be Cyclones in a hard fought match. Rockhampton
BE Score Predictor: Cairns 69 - Rockhampton 76
Gladstone Port City Power vs. Mackay Meteorettes
Offensive Rating: Gladstone - 95.5 (5th), Mackay - 85.2 (9th)
Defensive Rating: Gladstone - 94.5 (13th), Mackay - 90.8 (9th)
The Gist: Gladstone were back at full strength and managed to get back to the winning column after a 95-74 win over Toowoomba. Import Markel Walker was impressive with 30 points (13/14 FG) and 18 rebounds to earn her a player of the week award. Solid contributions from Maddy Willey (27 points) and debutant import Kerah Nelson (20 points). Mackay struggled against the defending champions at home with Tami Willey (20 points) and Deanna Weaver (19 points)
Such a difficult game to predict with both team evenly match. Neither team has a significantly deep bench and rely entirely on the starting lineups. Rachel Allison is back for Mackay and should be a lot better than her 2/7 shooting vs. Rockhampton. Mellars and Moloa were disappointing for the Power against Toowoomba and would need to step it up against Mackay Lots of intriguing matchups with Walker and Allison, my favourite. Both teams need this win to avoid going 3 losses this early into the season. Gladstone
BE Score Predictor: Gladstone 75 - Mackay 74
Saturday, May 21
Bundaberg Bears vs. Mackay Meteorettes
Offensive Rating: Bundaberg - 81.9 (13th), Mackay - 85.2 (9th)
Defensive Rating: Bundaberg - 77.7 (1st ), Mackay - 90.8 (9th)
The Gist: Bundaberg had a bye in week 3, but they did have a win the last time they played in Round 2 over SC Phoenix-Clippers 67-61. Carly Boag top scored with 28 points and also had 14 rebounds. Mackay is heading into their second game of their road trip.
Carly Boag has been pulling massive numbers for the Bears and they will need that to continue for them to have a shot against Mackay. Melissa Quirk should have ample time learning the offence and defence and would need to do more than 3 of 14 from the field in her debut game. Mackay team that has 5 legitimate starters and more options that can dominated a game that Bundaberg . How much energy Mackay exerts the night before against Gladstone could also determine the outcome so it should be a close game that can go either way. Mackay
BE Score Predictor Bundaberg 69 - Mackay 68
Brisbane Capitals vs. South West Metro Pirates
Offensive Rating: Brisbane - 83.5 (11th), South West - 93.4 (6th)
Defensive Rating: Brisbane - 87.0 (7th), South West - 84.9 (4th)
The Gist: Brisbane struggle on the weekend with losses over Townsville and Cairns. Heidi Freeburn and Amy Lewis were their top two players for the Capitals. South West earned their second win of the win easily disposing of SC Rip 86-67. Sidney Parsons continued her impressive start to the season with 31 points, while Erica Carlson had 22 points and 16 rebounds on her return.
Really tough to predict here. Brisbane has had a stronger schedule that South West so far but the likes of Freeburn and Lewis are showing good signs. South West has had weaker opposition (Gladstone were depleted in Round 2) but Parsons and Carlson (that one game) have been good. So it comes down to the rest of the players. On paper Brisbane has more skillful players and more experience, given the edge to the home team. Brisbane
BE Score Predictor Brisbane 69 - South West Metro 73
Gold Coast Rollers vs. Toowoomba Mountaineers
Offensive Rating: Gold Coast - 99.6 (3rd), Toowoomba - 82.5 (12th)
Defensive Rating: Gold Coast - 85.6 (5th), Toowoomba - 99.9 (14th)
The Gist: Alongside the Flames, Gold Coast are left undefeated so far. They managed to take care of the Phoenix-Clippers 89-77. Nadeen Payne had 30 points and 13 rebounds, with another 4 players on double-digit scoring. Toowoomba had a rough week, comprehensively losing to Rockhampton and Gladstone.
Prediction: Nadeen Payne has been one of the top players in the league so far with double-doubles and providing that star player that Gold Coast. Toowoomba were missing players with Essex, Dickerson and Kirby Lennan unavailable. They will be glad to have Beatriz Royo Torres into the foray and alongside her sister they should form a potent duo. Toowoomba should have a better performance this week but i still have to give the edge to the Rollers give how Payne is performing. Gold Coast
BE Score Predictor Gold Coast 83 - Toowoomba 69
Townsville Flames vs. Rockhampton Cyclones Offensive Rating: Townsville - 99.9 (2nd), Rockhampton - 101.0 (1st)
Defensive Rating: Townsville - 86.5 (6th), Rockhampton - 84.3 (3rd)
The Gist: What a game this is bound to be. Novosel vs. Jones and George vs. Dowdell should be mouthwatering prospects. Townsville have been the team to beat so far this season but the get their first real challenge with the defending champions. I like what Brady Walmsley has done to this team and facing the Cyclones on their second game of the road trip should make it for interesting viewing. Rockhampton have a solid 5, i like how Alex Brady is contributing and if they dispose of Cairns in quick fashion and conserve energy i can see them winning, but my gut still thinks George and Novosel will be a handful. Townsville
BE Score Predictor Townsville 73 - Rockhampton 74
Sunshine Coast Rip vs. Logan Thunder
Offensive Rating: SC Rip - 63.9 (14th), Logan - 87.7 (7th)
Defensive Rating: SC Rip - 88.9 (8th), Logan - 92.6 (11th)
The Gist: SC Rip lost to SW Metro at Hibiscus and are still yet to taste a win. Kristen Langhorn had 29 points and 17 rebounds while Francis Donders bounced back from an awful week 2 game with 18 points. Logan come back from behind victory over Ipswich Force with Kate Gaze top scoring with 28 points
As many expected Rip have struggled to compete in this League. While Langford and Donder have shown signs they can play, the other import Beasley has been awful. To top that, the remaining players are inexperienced and providing limited support. Logan is missing Kate Gaze and a lot of the scoring will have to go through Smith and need to get more out Rees and their youngsters like O’Brien and Motuga. Rip might have a slight chance but i have to give it to Thunder. Logan
BE Score Predictor: SC Rip 64 - Logan 76
Sunday, May 22
Sunshine Coast Phoenix Clippers vs. Logan Thunder
Offensive Rating: SC Phoenix - 84.6 (10th), Logan - 87.7 (7th)
Defensive Rating: SC Phoenix - 93.8 (12th), Logan - 92.6 (11th)
The Gist: SC Phoenix Clippers lost to Gold Coast over the weekend 89-77. Kierra Mallard had 21 points and 9 rebound, with contributions from Flasarova and Fraser. Logan have an unusual road trip doing the Sunshine Coast double.
With Kate Gaze unavailable it sort of evens out the plain field. Mallard / Rees is a key given how reliant the Phoenix are on Mallard. Containing Smith is a key for Phoenix, who would glad not to see Gaze around. Sunshine Coast Phoenix
BE Score Predictor: SC Phoenix 74 - Logan 72
