QBL Men Qualifying Finals Predictions
Brisbane Capitals vs. Ipswich Force Brayden Heslehurst (Quest Newspaper columnist and occasional NBN analyst) In a rematch of last year’s quarter finals, two teams who like to launch the long ball will look to light up NAB Stadium. I think they key for both teams is simple – if James Legan goes off, Ipswich have a chance, if Brisbane can limit his impact, the Capitals should get the victory. As well as focusing on Legan at the defensive end, Geoff Tarrant and the Capitals need to attack him on the offensive end and remove him from the equation by trying to get him in foul trouble. If Brisbane can do that and can get Aaron Anderson and Dusty Rychart going, the Capitals will progress. But as we’ve seen in the past, teams can surprise Brisbane as Toowoomba did in the last round – don’t count Ipswich out. My tip – Brisbane by 6
Anthony Corcoran (Toowoomba Head Coach) Brisbane in my view are one of the best defensive teams in the league and will have a plan to double-team/smother James Legan in this game. If he is unable to get good looks then expect him to only score 15-20 which won’t be enough production for Ipswich to win. The round game was a little bit of a see-sawing affair with Brisbane getting a run of buckets then maintaining the lead late in the game. Ipswich unfortunately don’t have the defensive application to be able to contain Brisbane on the 3 point line when they will try and get 40+ shots up. Harvey is a worker and will get his 22/15 per game but sometimes his shot selection can be a little rushed. It would take Wilson and Eustace having outstanding defensive games for Ipswich to stay in touch but I don’t think the post season experience is there as yet for Ipswich to make this happen. Brisbane by 12.
Daniel George (NBN analyst) At home, you would expect Brisbane to take care of business. I am often critical of the style of basketball the Caps play as I am not sure it is conducive to winning championships. Still, quality and experienced players such as Dusty Rychart (who needs way more touches), Jeffires and Anderson should be enough, as long as they D up Legan. Who can forget the 3 pt clinic he put on a year ago to almost get his side a W. Brent Wallace has produced lower numbers than what I expected this season, but a 20 & 15 outing in a playoff game gives his squad a chance.
Jason Ralph (Ipswich Player) We played 35 minutes of great basketball last year in our quarter final against Brisbane but forgot to close out the game, so our main focus is putting 40 minutes together for us to grab the W.
South West Metro Pirates vs Logan Thunder
Nate Tate (SWM Coach) No doubt this will be our toughest game yet. Logan is a quality side with many experienced and talented players, then you add in a great coach in D Rucker. Well need to play our best game defensive as Logan have multiple scorers who can light it up from the perimetre. Offensive, we'll need to be disciplined and execute our stuff with little error underpressure. Good shot selection is vital for us to win games.
Brendan Teys (SWM Player) Obviously we just played them last weekend so both teams are going to be watching a lot of tape and coming up with strategies on how to improve from that game. If we stick to the things that got us the win last week which included our defense and transition offense we should be fine. We know we have the team this year to go all the way and should get some key pieces back as we hopefully advance through the playoffs.
Brayden Heslehurst (Quest Newspaper columinst and occasional NBN analyst) The South West coaching staff better be on their game on Saturday because as we saw last year, Derek Rucker can make the appropriate adjustments going into the finals – and he has one of the better assistants in the league in Dylan Salfi. I wouldn’t take anything from last week’s game, the Pirates did battle hard and will be boosted by the return of Brendan Teys but will still miss one of their most important players in Jarred Bairstow as well as Adam Tolo’s contribution off the bench. The battle between Mitch Young and Tanner McGrew will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the game but I think if the Thunder can run the game through Cedar and Young they should progress in the finals series. Tip – Logan by 15.
Anthony Corcoran (Toowoomba Head Coach) Logan have dropped a few games in the last few weeks and this will worry Coach Rucker, they do seem to me to be a team that runs on momentum and they are coming into this game from a standing start. Unfortunately SW will suffer with Bairstow and Tolo away in Rio. McGrew has lived up to his reputation and I can see why he was the leading rebounder in the D2 college system, he works hard and plays within his role. Conrad on the other hand didn’t impress me all that much and his size would be better utilised in the paint not on the perimeter in my view. I think SW could trouble Logan in the back court if SW play up the floor and look to disrupt the Logan guards so perhaps Baker or Ammar will need to share the load a little bit there. Logan will need to distribute the ball freely and get multiple guys scoring. I think McGrew is good enough to contain Mitch Young so they need other people chipping in, perhaps more of Baker in the paint then from the perimeter. Anyhow on paper Logan have a better team and should account for a depleted SW by about 10.
Daniel George (NBN Analyst) Yes they have had a very underwhelming end to the post-season. Yes they are on the road. And yes, they got their asses beat a week ago by the same team, but I expect Logan to win this match. They have one of the deepest and most complete rosters in the league and I expect that experience to shine through against an over achieving SW Metro team, who appear well coached and have two studs in Teys and McGrew. Missing Bairstow swings this to Logan in my opinion
Mackay Meteors vs. Cairns Marlins
Ken Furdek (Mackay Head Coach) Winning in Cairns is one of the most difficult things to achieve but for us to taste success our focus is on controlling the tempo and limiting the opportunities of Tragardh and Loughton. We are playing some great team defense at the moment and that gives us confidence going into the game Brayden Heslehurst (Quest Newspaper columnist and occasional NBN analyst) I think Mackay might continue their momentum in the finals and spring an upset at the Fish Tank. Mackay turned around their form to make the finals and I think, when they’re on a roll, the combination of Chris Cedar and Shaun Bruce is tough for any team to deal with. The key for Cairns will be if Cameron Tragardh can get it going but he faces, in my opinion, one of the best post defenders in the league in TJ Diop. My tip – Mackay by 10.
Anthony Corcoran (Toowoomba Head Coach) A bit like Logan, I think Mackay are a bit vulnerable in the guards department. If Cairns can play up the floor and force the bigger Mackay guys to make bad passes, they could get an early advantage. Trigger and Loughton are more experienced and can operate better in the paint than Diop & Rasmussen so Mackay should consider a bit of zone and see if they can keep the Cairns duo out of the paint. Think this will be a close one but Cairns have a little too much experience and will win by 4.
Daniel George (NBN Analyst) Mackay's title defence ends here in a bit of a road upset for Cairns. With both teams accumulating the same 11-6 regular season record, this should be a close one, but the class of Cam T and Loughton should be enough to steer the Marlins to a W. If Triggers decides to dominate, I can't see anyone from Mackay stopping him, with Loughton and Heuir doing their usual thing, that should be enough
James Mitchell (Cairns Player) Firstly we need to contain Brucey and Chris Cedar as much as possible and don't let them get going because they're contagious to their team and then after that we need to take care of the bigs rolling to the hoop off their on-balls and keep em off the offensive glass aswell. They're the two things we've been focusing on the most and if we do that, we'll know what to do for the rest of the game, it should fall into place
